Possible Warning Signs From Last Weeks’ Celebration
November 11, 2024 Good morning, The stock market seemed to cheer Donald Trump’s victory last week. The bond market did not. On Wednesday, the S&P 500 Index (SPX) surged +2.5%, the best day after the election since at least 1928. Long-term Treasury’s dropped -2.3% in price, the 10th worst day after an election. On the week, […]
Same Story I’m Afraid
November 7, 2024 Good morning, As a lifetime student of markets, the early seminal lesson I learned at the foot of a master technician (Alan Shaw) 40 years ago gets played out in real-time in markets over and over again; “The best predictive tool of a market’s future is the market itself.” Translated, the market […]
September 2024 Monthly Letter
The following is your September 2024 Robertson Stephens Monthly Performance Report. The chart above has many investors (including me) nervous about valuation and too much of a good thing. History makes a good argument for us to reach for the Prilosec and to stay invested. The S&P 500 Index rose 2.14% in September, bringing its monthly winning […]
Stocks and Bonds Seemingly Unfazed by Red or Blue Outcome
November 4, 2024 Good morning, Last Thursday morning I suggested that the recent trend in equities would be challenged, and it was. I also suggested that a trend-breaking move would be muted ahead of the election – it was not. Thursday’s S&P 500 Index (SPX) decline (-1.86%) was the biggest one-day drop in months. As usual, it […]
It’s All Election Now
October 31, 2024 Good morning, With 5 days left to the closely contested election, no one knows the outcome. The polls are even; stocks and bonds are leaning Red, but Wall Street can get it wrong. There is not much I can write today or Monday that will prove to be of much value. So, […]
Very Noisy Week Ahead
October 28, 2024 Good morning, For the first time in 7 weeks, the S&P 500 Index was down last week, off a whopping -0.96%. The corrective pause in the equity market continues – more of a correction for value stocks, and more of a pause for growth stocks. As well, yields continued rising in the […]
A Pause Is Corrective Action In A Strong Tape
October 24, 2024 Good morning, So far this week, we’ve seen the S&P 500 Index decline 3-days in a row – is a correction afoot? The Index is off –1.38% over those 3-days; it is more of a pause than anything else. And given that a correction is overdue for stocks while volatility remains elevated, […]
Steady As She Goes
October 21, 2024 Good morning, The steady and moderately paced melt-up in all the major equity indices (almost all of which are in new high territory) continued last week as quarterly earnings and economic data helped validate the bull camp’s narrative – a soft/no landing thesis. Breadth (daily advancing stocks vs declining stocks) remains broad […]
The Trend Is Your Friend
October 17, 2024 Good morning, Momentum is an important factor in the calculus explaining the price fluctuation of securities in the public markets. In market analysis, momentum is a nebulous concept; it is physics (mass x velocity) applied to an emotional structure (public markets). Nevertheless, when a broad portion of a market rolls in one […]
Melt-Up Continues – Choppiness Likely Ahead
October 14, 2024 Good morning, The U.S. stock market continued to climb its wall of expanding list of worries last week. Despite the sharp rise in geopolitical risk from the Middle East, rising oil prices, higher yields in credit markets, and lowered expectations of Fed easing, the S&P 500 Index was able to set new […]
October 2024 Recap
Economy In October 2024, the US economy continued to show resilience to high interest rates and geopolitical uncertainty, growing even above the Fed’s estimate of its potential growth of 2%. The Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index, a key measure of inflation, dropped to 2.09% year-over-year in September, aligning closely with the Federal Reserve’s target […]
Investment Commentary – November 4, 2024
Equities The S&P 500 returned -1.4% amid mixed earnings announcements from technology bellwethers and a continued rise in interest rates. Communication services (+1.5%) and consumer discretionary (+0.5%) were the only sectors in the S&P 500 to eke out positive returns; technology (-3.3%) and real estate (-3.1%) were the laggards. EAFE markets returned -1.0%, with Europe […]