2026 Economic and Investment Outlook
Chief Economist Jeanette Garretty and Chief Investment Officer Stuart Katz break down 2025 and provide their outlook for 2026.
Quarterly Letter: Navigating a Shifting Global Order
January 13, 2026 – As I reflect on the past year, it’s hard to escape the sense that we are living through geopolitical changes that will take years to fully understand. Power dynamics are shifting not only between hemispheres and continents, but also within them. As the post–Cold War era fades, an emerging world order […]
Why this is a planning year, not a prediction year
Investors are always inundated with forecasts in January – where markets might go, what interest rates might do, or which risks are most likely to dominate the year ahead. While those conversations can be interesting, they’re not always the most productive place to focus; 2025, for instance, upended many confident predictions about both the economy […]
Five Charts for the Week That Was: December 19, 2025
Chief Economist Jeanette Garretty provides 5 economic charts covering topics including employment including federal employees and CPI.
FOMC Commentary – December 10, 2025
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 bps, with the Fed Funds target range now 3.5%-3.75%. This rate cut is not expected to significantly impact economic activity, which is currently expanding at a 2.5%-3.0% pace.
Five Charts for the Week That Was: December 5, 2025
Chief Economist Jeanette Garretty provides 5 economic charts covering topics including holiday shopping, gas prices, and electricity costs.
Markets Rebound as Fed Signals December Rate Cut
Executive Summary Last week, the equity market staged a broad rebound, recovering a portion of November’s losses. The rally was sparked by commentary from the Federal Reserve suggesting a December rate cut is back on the table. Major equity indices rallied sharply, with gains spread across sectors and factors. Small-cap stocks were the standout performers, […]
Consumer Sentiment vs. Spending: A Holiday Season Disconnect
Economists have long cautioned against using consumer sentiment surveys to forecast consumer spending. Statistically, income growth is the overwhelming determinant of consumer expenditures, with a lesser, but significant, contributory role played by changes in wealth. Retirement accounts and home equity constitute more than 60% of US Household wealth and these two important components of wealth, like […]
November 2025 Recap
Economic Commentary The Health of the Consumer and the Holiday Shopping Season The shift in holiday spending patterns is more than just a retail curiosity; it reflects a fundamental change in how consumer spending is measured. The pre-holiday “pull-forward” strategy, driven by aggressive online promotions, suggests that the question is not about the line outside […]
Market Note: The Cost of Living in the Age of AI
By Avi Deutsch November 25, 2025 – As we digest the results of November’s elections, a common narrative is emerging that ties the outcome to a stubborn reality: life still feels expensive. Cost of living dominated local debates and exit polls, echoing concerns that have lingered since the inflation peaks of 2022–2023. While headline inflation […]
September Metrics Establish Baseline Amid Limited Government Reporting
Economic data for September continues to gush out like water at the end of a fire hose. The problem seems to be that September feels like a LONG time ago. Nevertheless, reports on September employment (last week), and Producer Prices and Retail Sales (both this week), help to establish the base on which the economy is […]
Five Charts for the Week That Was: November 21, 2025
Chief Economist Jeanette Garretty provides 5 economic charts covering topics including unemployment claims, payroll employment growth, federal tax refunds, trade deficit, and money supply vs. inflation.