Investment Commentary – September 29, 2025
Executive Summary The economy appears to remain resilient, and the Fed is cutting rates in the middle of an economy that is slowing but still expanding. Historically, such conditions have been bullish for risk assets. According to Franklin Templeton, in the last 50 years, there have been eight instances where the Fed resumed cutting interest […]
Wealth Planning Commentary – September 29, 2025
A Window of Opportunity: Home Energy Tax Credits Are Expiring Soon The end of the year is fast approaching, and with it, a significant opportunity for homeowners is set to expire. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act has accelerated the termination of several federal home-energy tax credits, meaning that 2025 is the last chance for […]
U.S. Government Shutdowns and Risk Markets
US Federal Government Shutdowns Some of the federal government’s activities are set to shut down if Congress cannot agree to fund them by October 1, 2025 What is a government shutdown? A shutdown occurs when non-essential federal government activities close temporarily because Congress has not approved funding to keep them open. There have been 10 […]
Five Charts for the Week That Was: September 19, 2025
Chief Economist Jeanette Garretty provides 5 economic charts covering topics including inflation, US consumer sentiment and demand, as well as job revisions and jobless claims.
FOMC Commentary – September 17, 2025
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted to lower the Federal Funds rate target range by 25bps, from 4.25%-4.5% to 4%-4.25%. The context provided for this move was as important as the interest rate cut itself, slowing employment growth but continued inflation at levels “somewhat” higher than desirable.
Wealth Planning Commentary – September 15, 2025
Lower Rates Likely Raise Your Insurance Premiums It is very possible that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates this week, and this could potentially affect the premiums you pay for your property and casualty (P&C) insurance. The relationship between interest rates and insurance premiums isn’t immediately obvious, but it’s a fundamental part of the […]
Economic Commentary – September 15, 2025
The burning question this week is NOT “What Will the Federal Reserve Do?” It is the question of how bad the US labor market really is, and it is a question that will not be answered. But it will be much discussed, especially on Wednesday, during Federal Reserve Chairman Powell’s press conference following the Federal Open […]
Market Note: A Fall Chill is in the Air
September 12, 2025 – It’s astounding that even in this age of breathtaking technological innovation, our ability to understand the state of the economy in real time remains limited. Economists and investors worldwide rely on government data that is released with significant delays and often revised. You almost have to wonder, where’s AI when you […]
Economic Commentary – September 8, 2025
The data being released in the next few days should cause a certain amount of acid reflux, both in global financial markets and in Washington, D.C. One statistic that seldom generates much attention outside of economic circles is the annual benchmark revision (think of it as a “true-up” with all the now-available data) in US […]
Investment Commentary – September 8, 2025
Executive Summary Financial markets have weathered months of policy-driven volatility, and after a nearly 20% decline, the S&P 500 has regained all its losses and set numerous all-time highs. What remains is a sharply higher effective tariff rate and uncertainty about the impact of 2026 corporate earnings, consumer demand, and economic growth. While easing tensions […]
Wealth Planning Commentary – September 8, 2025
A Love Story and a Financial Roadmap When you see a couple like Taylor and Travis in the news, it’s easy to get lost in the romance. The glitz, the glamour, the record-breaking stadium tours, and the Super Bowl wins—it’s all part of the modern fairy tale. But for a moment, let’s pull back the […]
Five Charts for the Week That Was: September 5, 2025
Chief Economist Jeanette Garretty provides 5 economic charts covering topics including inflation, the US consumer, the housing market, and job openings.