Testing the Low – March 31, 2025
March 31, 2025 Good morning, Friday’s -2% decline on the S&P 500 Index was not predicted, but it was easy to understand. The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge – the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index – was released early Friday morning. Unfortunately for bulls, core PCE prices came in a little warmer than expected while Personal […]
Basically a “Stuck” Week – March 28, 2025
March 28, 2025 Good morning, Equity markets so far this week have still been volatile, just not as volatile as they’ve been over the past month. The Volatility Index (VIX) is off its recent peak (just under 30) and below the alarm-threshold of 20. At 19 this morning, however, there is no sigh of relief to be […]
Long and Short Term Perspectives – March 24, 2025
March 24, 2025 Good morning, In late December, I wrote a few Morning Notes about the bubble valuation of the market and the potential risks a market at extreme valuations carries. To trigger a memory, I ended each bubble valuation notereferencing Warren Buffet’s record cash holdings. While the market has gotten 10 – 15% cheaper since then, valuations […]
Underweight Today’s Noise – March 21, 2025
March 21, 2025 Good morning, We are long term investors for our clients and believe that the key to successful long-term investing is to keep portfolios aligned with the prevailing long-term trends in markets. Long term trends all begin as short-term trends. Non-durable short-term trends are noise. The art and mathematics behind investment success is […]
The New Trade War: Lessons from 2018-2020 and What’s Next
By John Lau March 6, 2025 – Trade policies don’t always make headlines, but when they do, it’s usually because they’re creating disruptions. With tariffs expanding and global trade relationships shifting, the current landscape demands a closer look. Recent developments have introduced significant uncertainties for businesses, investors, and policymakers, and I felt it was important […]
Preparing for an Inheritance: Don’t Let Your Blessing Become a Curse
March 5, 2025 A few practical steps, such as establishing your financial independence and asking questions, can help you avoid inheritance pitfalls. As published in Kiplinger By Mallon FitzPatrick Many people look forward to an inheritance — it can provide financial security, opportunities for education and the ability to pursue passions. But there’s a lesser-known, […]
Is the U.S. economy losing momentum?
By John Lau February 28, 2025 – One of the main reasons stocks have declined over the past week is due to concerns that the U.S. economy is losing momentum, and much of the concern is coming from weak sentiment surveys vis-a-vis hard economic data. So, do other market metrics echo these growth concerns? To […]
2025 Rate Cut Outlook: The Fed on Hold – What Will Investors Focus On?
By the Robertson Stephens Wealth Management, LLC Investment Office In recent years, the Federal Reserve carried out one of the fastest rate-hiking campaigns in history to bring inflation down from a multi-decade high. After holding rates high for over 12 months, the central bank started its current rate-cutting cycle in late 2024, lowering rates by […]
Life Design: Crafting Your Future with Purpose
By Frank Corrado Imagine having a trusted guide by your side as you navigate life’s significant changes—whether it’s a changed relationship, finances, or a quest for deeper meaning. That’s what Life Design is all about. Life Design equips you with the tools and guidance to proactively shape your future, embrace change, and align your financial decisions with […]
What Would Cause the Fed to Cut Rates Again?
By John Lau January 31, 2025 – On Wednesday, the Fed made no change to interest rates, as expected. Turning to Powell’s press conference, I do think the Fed used the meeting to convey that unless inflation declines further or growth rolls over, rates aren’t declining anytime soon. From a market standpoint, the net impact […]
Small Cap Year End 2024 Commentary
Celebrating 5-Years of Success To the clients who supported us from the beginning, thank you! Over the past five years, our portfolio has compounded at just over 16% annually (based on our composite), exceeding our 15% goal and significantly outpacing the Russell 2000, which compounded at 7.4% during the same period. This achievement required discipline […]
Small Cap Q3 2024 Commentary
5-year goal in focus! As we approach our five-year anniversary, we’re pleased to report that our goal of achieving an annualized return of around 15% (net of fees) over this period seems within reach, barring any significant market disruptions in Q4. We’re proud to be on track for these returns, especially given the challenges we’ve […]