Much Ado
February 10, 2023 Good morning, With the S&P 500 Index off -1.34% thus far this week, it appears that an overdue pullback has finally begun. If you read some financial headlines this morning, you’d think the world was coming to an end. For example, one headline I saw said, “S&P set up for worst week […]
The Ingredients Are Present – But It Is A Bull Market Now
February 8, 2023 Good morning, The equity market, in S&P 500 Index terms, has meandered a bit now into its third trading session of the week. Down -.61% on Monday, up +1.29% on Tuesday, and down ~-.50% in pre-market trading this morning. It looks like we have a newly defined bull market, acting like a […]
Pullback Still Likely
February 6, 2023 Good morning, Last Monday’s Morning Note finished with a concern of an overbought market possibly pulling back with a Fed Meeting and Employment Report to get through. What I did not anticipate was the market’s willingness to continue to interpret Fed Chair Powell’s narrative as dovish. Even with Friday’s -1.04% decline in the […]
Big Week
January 30, 2023 Good morning, Overnight Futures are off almost -1% this morning, ahead of a big week for investors. With two days left in January and the S&P 500 Index up +6.11% month-to-date, professional investors and allocators may trim a bit of risk before month’s end. Especially with February set to open with a […]
Bull Designation: Likely – Robust: Unlikely
January 27, 2023 Good morning, If chart analysis isn’t your thing, I wouldn’t blame you if you hit the delete button right now. We’re going to look at Bloomberg’s 1yr price chart of the S&P 500 Index this morning and compare it to “The market will trade in the same range it has been in […]
Confirmation Finally
January 25, 2023 Good morning, A key long-term breadth indicator (a technical signal), the percent of stocks above their 200-day moving average (dma), confirmed recent short-term breadth thrusts yesterday. The market has finally given longer-term confirmation of the short-term positive signals registered in October and November last year. What does this mean to our recent […]
Despite Tech’s Rescue – Still Range Bound
January 23, 2022 Good morning, For the first time in months, technology stocks came to the rescue of the broader market last Friday. The holiday shortened week had gotten off to a rough start with the S&P 500 Index down over -2.5% through Thursday night. Most of the other domestic equity indexes were worse, and International […]
Gaining Currency
January 19, 2023 Good morning, Yesterday’s reports on retail sales and industrial production, which followed weak ISM (Institute of Supply Management) reports for manufacturing and services a few days ago, suggest the economy has taken another step toward recession. In response, bond yields plummeted yesterday (yields down, prices up for bonds), as did U.S. stock […]
Surprisingly Strong
January 17, 2023 Good morning, It looks to be a quiet start to the holiday-shortened week, with a lot of investor attention directed to the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. On the home front, we did get more bank earnings this morning. Goldman Sachs (GS) came in light and is down -1.5% pre-market open […]
December 2022 Monthly Letter
To the very end, Take-No-Prisoners was the past year’s battle cry from global markets. Arguably the most painful move in markets over the past year has been the sharp decline in government bond prices (and its reciprocal rise in yields). Investors around the world know that stocks can provide a bumpy ride but the unusually […]
A Lot
January 11, 2023 Good morning, My apologies in advance, this morning’s note is unusually packed. Just a coincidence of time, but as always, please call me with any questions whatsoever. Jeffrey Gundlach (DoubleLine) conducted his annual Just Markets webinar last night. While he is an extraordinary fixed income manager, Just Markets is the one time […]
No Longer Untethered
January 9, 2023 Good morning, Friday’s market performance was impressive for both stocks and bonds, with most major equity indices moving up by more than +2% and bond yields declining by 16 bps or more across the entire treasury curve (full breadth of maturities). While the headline number of Friday’s December Employment Data was higher […]