Wild Times in Bond Land
October 24, 2022 Good morning, On Friday morning we observed the significant rise in yields in bond land for the week through Thursday, and the headwinds rising yields typically have on equity prices. We noted that all things considered, equities had made a good showing through the first four days of the week, especially considering […]
You’re Right, But …
October 21, 2022 Good morning, Futures are down 1% at overnight session lows this morning about an hour before U.S. markets open. They are off due to the continued spike in yields on Treasuries and new relative highs on the Dollar. Earlier this week, I suggested choppy, sideways action may be in store for stocks leading […]
A Two-Week Data Vacuum?
October 19, 2022 Good morning, Futures are off just a bit this morning (-.3%), following two rally days for the S&P 500, now up +3.82% for the week. The next two weeks may be choppy but sideways for markets with little important economic data around the Inflation-Fed narrative leading right into the next Fed meeting […]
Not Much To Add
October 16, 2022 Good morning, Sorry about Friday’s Morning Note – the part regarding the likely beginning of another bear market rally. A rally did not begin Friday, the S&P 500 Index was down -2.37% on the day, and ended the week off -1.55%. However, short and intermediate term pessimism (technically, deeply oversold market conditions) […]
Enough or Not
October 12, 2022 Good morning, Futures are up roughly +0.70% (25 pts), pointing to a modest recovery at the opening bell. Pepsi just delivered its quarterly update, and its stock is up +2% premarket, saying consumers continue to purchase more of its snacks and soft drinks despite rising inflation. Not a bad way to jump-start […]
It’s Still Volatile Out There
October 10, 2022 Good morning, It’s a half-holiday day today for the markets as bond trading and banks are closed. Futures are off fractionally. It will likely be a low volume, low volatility day, as hard as that might be to imagine. Watching the S&P 500 drop -2.8% on Friday and still close the week up […]
September 2022 Monthly Letter
Central banks around the world are once again acting in concert. The last time, in 2020, it was a coordinated response to the pandemic, with unprecedented capital infusions into their respective economies. Today, without admitting or denying guilt of over-stimulating, they are all working to bring inflation under control, despite the inherent risks to the growth outlook. […]
No Surprise This Morning
October 7, 2022 Good morning, September employment data came in this morning (8:30am EDT) and the report was spot-on expectations for a change. Payrolls for September increased +263k vs +265k expected. It’s the first data test for the rally that began Monday, and the initial market move has Futures off -1%. Remember, initial market moves off any […]
Probabilities
October 5, 2022 Good morning, Last month, September, the S&P 500 Index plummeted -9.3%, the index’s worst monthly performance since March 2020. The first two trading days of this month, October, the S&P 500 Index is up +5.7%, the best two day move for the Index since April 2020. The primary difference between then and […]
Holding Support By a Razor Thin Margin Now
October 3, 2022 Good morning, Awful. That’s the only way to describe the brutal end of a day, week, month, and quarter as September went out on Friday afternoon seemingly with a few fingers raised (yes, those two). The S&P 500 traded at unchanged levels almost all-day Friday, until the final 90 minutes when it […]
It Didn’t Seem Right Anyway
September 30, 2022 Good morning, Lore: a body of traditions and knowledge on a subject. Outside the possibility of a few hours of unprecedented market behavior today (futures are flat, btw), market lore may have gotten it too right this month. The S&P 500 Index is down -7.83% entering this final day of September. I […]
Just As They Are Now
September 28, 2022 Good morning, Picking up this morning where we left off in Monday’s Morning Note, it appears the market has raced down to its June lows (in S&P 500 Index terms). In the past six days alone, the Index is down -6.5%, the worst span since February 2020 and the beginning of Covid. […]