Waxing And Waning For Now
June 22, 2023 Good morning, What looked like a possibility on Tuesday morning is now confirmed; the markets are in profit-taking mode since last week’s Fed meeting. It’s natural. Markets wax and wane, they trend, and they revert to their mean… constantly. So far, the selling has been very mild and centered on stocks with […]
Pretty Quiet Week Ahead
June 20, 2023 Good morning, Profit-taking seems to be in the air at the start of this holiday-shortened week – Futures have been down as much as -.50% over the past few hours on no news whatsoever. It is a much quieter week ahead compared to last week’s event-filled minefield. There are no key economic […]
Disinflation Supports Uptrends
June 16, 2023 Good morning, This week has been all about inflation and the Fed. Let’s unpack inflation a little: headline CPI (Consumer Price Index) inflation fell to 4.0% y/y, the lowest rate since March 2021. Core inflation (excludes food and energy, Fed’s key data point) was stickier and came down to 5.3% y/y, but […]
Not Such A Big Deal For A Change
June 14, 2023 Good morning, It is a Fed day today and ordinarily, since the beginning of this tightening cycle (March 2022), it would be a big deal. Maybe not so much today. At the last FOMC meeting in May, markets interpreted the Fed as following a hope-and pray-policy. Hoping that falling inflation and tighter […]
Quiet Into A Busy Week For Markets
June 12, 2023 Good morning, Last week had little economic data, muzzled Fed members in their quiet period, and little movement in the markets (S&P 500 +0.38% for the week). In contrast, this week is fairly huge though traders are approaching it warily (Futures +0.25% pre-market). They are bracing for May’s U.S. CPI (Consumer Price […]
Back to School
June 7, 2023 Good morning, Let’s briefly return to the classroom this morning and talk about The Taylor Rule. Stanford economist John Taylor originally proposed the rule as a rough guideline for monetary policy. It is an equation linking the Federal Reserve’s benchmark interest rate to levels of inflation and economic growth. A formula that […]
HSAs Offer Untapped Retirement Benefits For Wealthy, Advisors Say
June 5, 2023 – Head of Wealth Planning, Mallon FitzPatrick was featured in Financial Advisor Magazine to discuss ‘HSAs Offer Untapped Retirement Benefits For Wealthy.’ “Contributing $7,500 today will allow the taxpayer to deduct this amount from their taxable income,” FitzPatrick said. “Assuming the $7,500 is invested and compounds tax-free at an average of 8% […]
And … Here We Are
June 5, 2023 Good morning, The new week begins with the fixed income market still struggling with last Friday’s strong payroll figure (meaning yields are up again / prices are down). Fed Fund Futures are now pricing in a rate hike at next week’s FOMC meeting (Jun 14) at a 25% probability. That is up […]
The Argument for Caution Grows
June 1, 2023 Good morning, The economy and the markets are inexorably linked, just not perfectly. The imperfection is one of timing where markets move ahead of economies. Let’s talk about both today. When it comes to the U.S. economic outlook, there are plenty of negatives to focus on. Interest rates are much higher than […]
Too Good To Be True?
May 30, 2023 Good morning, We enter this holiday shortened, final week of May with markets looking pretty good for the moment. Investors did not sell in May and go away. The debt-ceiling issue has apparently been resolved (Futures are up another +.50% this morning pre-market). Treasury yields have fallen across the curve and the […]
The Start of Summer
May 26, 2023 Good morning, Happy Friday! The latest stories coming out of Washington DC suggest that some sort of debt-ceiling deal is within reach. That seems to match yesterday and this morning’s action in the futures market (Futures are +.20% at 8am ET). The gritty details of the deal probably won’t be inked until […]
EPA Plan to Green Up US Power Plants ‘Not a Silver Bullet’
May 25 – 2023 Principal and Managing Director, Christopher Knapp was featured in ESG Clarity discussing “EPA plan to green up US power plants ‘not a silver bullet.’” “It is not a silver bullet for emissions reductions and is still far too expensive, even with the tax provisions in the Inflation Reduction Act,” Knapp said. […]