CPI Not Hot Enough to Push Fed From Pause
September 14, 2023 Good morning, The next big event for markets is next week’s (9/20) Fed decision, pause or raise. To the extent that this week’s data dump might influence next week’s rate decision is why the dump has been the only game in town this week. The markets (stocks and bonds) were leaning toward […]
Nothing But Data This Week
September 11, 2023 Good morning, Following a very quiet data week last week, we get just the opposite this week. Nothing Monday and Tuesday, but the all-important key Fed inflation data point, CPI (Consumer Price Index), prints Wednesday morning. Our data-dependent market will get all it can handle after that through Friday: PPI, Retail Sales, […]
More Market Concerns
September 7, 2023 Good morning, The big news this morning is the following headline: China Seeks to Broaden iPhone Ban to State Firms and Agencies. Apple is trading down 3.5% in pre-market trading after being down ~4% yesterday. AAPL is the largest company in the S&P 500 Index at 7% by market capitalization. There are […]
Blank and Cloudy
September 5, 2023 Good morning, In addition to being one day shorter than usual, there is no treasury issuance (supply) and, no key economic data announcements this week. Following a strong rally last week (lower yields) into the employment data, yields are back up this morning and left on their own. We are seven trading […]
Mallon FitzPatrick on Cheddar News
August 29, 2023 – Principal and Managing Director, Mallon FitzPatrick appeared on Cheddar News Stretching Your Dollar to discuss ‘How College Students Should Manage Personal Finances.’ “The way to think about allocating expenses is in two categories, there are need spending and want spending. Your needs are your basics, your housing, your books, your equipment, the things you need to, to […]
Mind The Gap
August 31, 2023 Good morning, The S&P 500 Index (SPX) is on the move again this morning. Futures are +0.3% this final day of August. If this morning’s modest gain holds all day, it will be the fifth consecutive “up” day for the index to close out the month. A just-in-time rally because a week […]
Data Data Data
August 29, 2023 Good morning, Earnings season is wrapping up, Jackson Hole is behind us, and the next Fed meeting is over three weeks away (9/20). To say the market will be exclusively data-dependent for the next several weeks may be an understatement. Data-only periods like this tend to be trendless, dare I say choppy […]
Jeanette Garretty on Bloomberg Daybreak: Australia
August 28, ,2023 – Chief Economist and Managing Director, Jeanette Garretty appeared on Bloomberg Daybreak: Australia to discuss outlook for the US Economy and review Fed Chair Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. “We don’t know really what that neutral rate is. And that’s what I think the market is starting to absorb […]
Upward Path Looks Challenging
August 22, 2023 Good morning, Recall that I changed the cadence of the Morning Notes to only twice per week during August because I anticipated a quiet month. Wrong! It’s been anything but quiet, particularly in the bond market. But change is often healthy, so I’ll stay two/per for the next 3 wks accounting for […]
More Than Choppy
August 17, 2023 Good morning, Welcome back! When we last left our heroes, Mr. Bond and Ms. Stock, in early August, investor complacency was elevated, and fears of a recession were all but doused. However, markets were entering the toughest two months of the year (historically) in an extremely overbought condition. Looking at the 1yr […]
Summer of Chop
August 8, 2023 Good morning, A wet blanket was thrown onto Asian and European stock prices overnight as trade data in China confirmed the country is mired in a downturn that it is finding increasingly difficult to shake. S&P Futures are off -.80% pre-market. The S&P 500 Index was up +.90% yesterday – welcome to […]
Big Earnings
August 3, 2023 Good morning, Stocks fell and longer-term bond yields rose yesterday following a hot jobs data report (ADP) and the Treasury announcing it will ramp up its debt issuance – both before the market open. Another factor in yesterday’s selloff came from Fitch, the ratings agency. As they hinted at earlier this year, […]