August: Much Ado About Nothing?
August 1, 2023 Good morning, Welcome to August and a fond farewell to July, the fifth straight “up” month for the S&P 500 Index. Will August make it six? Perhaps, though any gain or loss for the month is likely to be modest. The distinguishing factor about August is most likely going to be volatility. […]
56 Quiet Day Ahead?
July 27, 2023 Goog morning, As widely expected, the FOMC raised the target for the fed funds rate by 25 bp to a range of 5.25% to 5.50%, the highest since March 2001. The Fed has raised rates a total of 525 bps since March 2022, making it the fastest hiking cycle ever. The Fed […]
I Doubt The Fed Blinks
July 25, 2023 Good morning, Markets have been preoccupied with the Fed since the beginning of its tightening cycle 16 months ago. It is no surprise then, that despite the beginning of earnings season, the S&P 500 Index has seen little change (<1%) since the Fed’s quiet period began over a week ago. Their quiet […]
Goldilocks Is Alive and Well
July 19, 2023 Good morning, There is no question now, the market is firmly in the grips of euphoria. The deftly threaded needle-soft landing narrative is so pervasive it is obscuring any other, less ideal outcome. That’s terrific; let’s enjoy watching our stock portfolios appreciate at the same time our returns on cash in our money market […]
Short & Sweet
July 17, 2023 Good morning – While U.S. retail sales, Industrial Production, and housing starts top this week’s list of macroeconomic data releases, none of them are on the list of the Fed’s key data points. That combined with the start of the Fed’s quiet period ahead of next week’s Fed meeting (7/26), and we […]
Approaching Euphoric Territory
July 14, 2023 Good morning, Crowd sentiment is the emotional state of the market at any point in time and falls under Behavioral Analysis in our overarching Technical/Quantitative market analysis methodology. Behavioral Analysis is one of the four types of analysis in the T/Q Methodology, the other three being; Macro-economic, Fundamental, and Technical, Analysis. Most […]
CPI Wednesday
July 12, 2023 Good morning, This month has had a simple narrative for investors; two releases of key inflation data ahead of an end-of-the-month Fed meeting where a rate hike has been a foregone conclusion. The first data point was the June employment numbers last week. The second is this morning’s June CPI numbers (Consumer […]
Putting Down A Line In The Sand
July 10, 2023 Good morning, Economists and analysts were whipsawed by last week’s various labor-market data releases. An extraordinarily hot ADP employment report for June (+497k) made analysts second guess their estimates for nonfarm payrolls the following day (which ultimately missed expectations). Though the various datasets had a wide variety, the overall message remained clear: […]
Higher, Longer, Deeper
July 7, 2023 Good morning, Treasury prices tumbled, and stocks fell yesterday on strong jobs data. One data point in particular out of ADP Research Institute said U.S. companies added the most jobs in more than a year in June. The number looked rogue. Economists didn’t believe it, but traders had to say “what if” and […]
An Unlikely Redo
July 5, 2023 Good morning, Time is such an interesting dimension, a constant that constantly feels like anything but. For example, last week feels like last year, thinking about the markets this morning. I hope you had a nice break – it seems like I did. One Wall Street adage you’ve often seen in these […]
This Inversion Version
June 28, 2023 Good morning, With apologies, it appears I may have jumped the gun on the summer doldrum call on Monday. Yesterday’s economic data (Consumer Confidence and New Home Sales) was surprisingly strong and reflected both better present business conditions and improved consumer expectations. Yesterday morning’s data surprises led to immediate risk-on buy orders […]
Summer Doldrums Coming?
June 26, 2023 Good morning, The last week of the first half of the year begins on a quiet note this morning. Futures are virtually unchanged, following a week of profit-taking last week – the S&P 500 Index (SPX) was down -1.38% last week, breaking a streak of 5-consecutive up weeks with a cumulative gain […]