Leaning Slightly Bullish and In Line with Cycles Chart
February 27, 2023 Good morning, The shortest month of the year is coming to an end and none too soon. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) had its worst week since December and was down -2.67% last week. February has taken back about half of January’s gains. A -4.5% correction on the SPX is not a […]
Time For A Pause?
February 23, 2023 Good morning, For all the anticipation of the Fed minutes yesterday, they didn’t really move the needle much at all. In any event, overnight price moves have generally reversed yesterday’s modest moves. Thus far, February has been a month of correction with markets reversing January’s surprisingly strong price gains. The correction in bonds has […]
Chart Day – Updated
February 21, 2023 Good morning, At the end of last year, what I thought was the most salient equity market forecast for the first half of 2023, that stocks would likely trade within the same range in the coming 6-months as they had in the last 6-months, was accompanied by a chart of the S&P […]
Par For Up-Trending Equities
February 15, 2023 Good morning, The all-important CPI number came in yesterday exactly as expected and it was expected to be a little strong. The interpretation by markets was “higher-for-longer” for the Fed’s tightening cycle. Two weeks ago, bond markets were betting a low probability of a May rate hike and an end to the […]
CPI Week
February 13, 2023 Good morning, Markets were quiet overnight, reluctantly inching higher into early morning trading (+0.25% on Futures, 90min before the open) as this month’s most important reading on inflation approaches the 24 hr. mark. January’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) prints tomorrow at 8:30am ET and is the event of the week. Last week, […]
Much Ado
February 10, 2023 Good morning, With the S&P 500 Index off -1.34% thus far this week, it appears that an overdue pullback has finally begun. If you read some financial headlines this morning, you’d think the world was coming to an end. For example, one headline I saw said, “S&P set up for worst week […]
The Ingredients Are Present – But It Is A Bull Market Now
February 8, 2023 Good morning, The equity market, in S&P 500 Index terms, has meandered a bit now into its third trading session of the week. Down -.61% on Monday, up +1.29% on Tuesday, and down ~-.50% in pre-market trading this morning. It looks like we have a newly defined bull market, acting like a […]
Pullback Still Likely
February 6, 2023 Good morning, Last Monday’s Morning Note finished with a concern of an overbought market possibly pulling back with a Fed Meeting and Employment Report to get through. What I did not anticipate was the market’s willingness to continue to interpret Fed Chair Powell’s narrative as dovish. Even with Friday’s -1.04% decline in the […]
Big Week
January 30, 2023 Good morning, Overnight Futures are off almost -1% this morning, ahead of a big week for investors. With two days left in January and the S&P 500 Index up +6.11% month-to-date, professional investors and allocators may trim a bit of risk before month’s end. Especially with February set to open with a […]
Bull Designation: Likely – Robust: Unlikely
January 27, 2023 Good morning, If chart analysis isn’t your thing, I wouldn’t blame you if you hit the delete button right now. We’re going to look at Bloomberg’s 1yr price chart of the S&P 500 Index this morning and compare it to “The market will trade in the same range it has been in […]
Confirmation Finally
January 25, 2023 Good morning, A key long-term breadth indicator (a technical signal), the percent of stocks above their 200-day moving average (dma), confirmed recent short-term breadth thrusts yesterday. The market has finally given longer-term confirmation of the short-term positive signals registered in October and November last year. What does this mean to our recent […]
Despite Tech’s Rescue – Still Range Bound
January 23, 2022 Good morning, For the first time in months, technology stocks came to the rescue of the broader market last Friday. The holiday shortened week had gotten off to a rough start with the S&P 500 Index down over -2.5% through Thursday night. Most of the other domestic equity indexes were worse, and International […]