Market Note: The Cost of Living in the Age of AI
By Avi Deutsch November 25, 2025 – As we digest the results of November’s elections, a common narrative is emerging that ties the outcome to a stubborn reality: life still feels expensive. Cost of living dominated local debates and exit polls, echoing concerns that have lingered since the inflation peaks of 2022–2023. While headline inflation […]
Quarterly Letter: The Political Limits of Growth
By Avi Deutsch October 10, 2025 – As I write this, the U.S. government remains shut down as Congress once again fails to agree on a path to keep the government funded. Government shutdowns have been a feature of American politics since the 1980s, but they have been increasing in frequency and length. The last […]
Market Note: A Fall Chill is in the Air
September 12, 2025 – It’s astounding that even in this age of breathtaking technological innovation, our ability to understand the state of the economy in real time remains limited. Economists and investors worldwide rely on government data that is released with significant delays and often revised. You almost have to wonder, where’s AI when you […]
Planning Note: What the One Big Beautiful Bill Means for Business Owners, Executives, and Other High Earners
August 14, 2025 – It’s been over a month since Congress passed the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), and investors, accountants, and planners are still studying the impact of this 900-page bill. If the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act did much to amplify the tax code, this bill makes it significantly more complicated, […]
Quarterly Letter: Policies Come into Focus
By Avi Deutsch July 10, 2025 – The past quarter saw the implementation of many of the policies promised by the new administration. These included: Across the board, it’s too early to say how these policies are impacting the economy. Tariffs are clearly raising revenues, but how this cost will be shared between foreign manufacturers, […]
Market Note: Who’s the PIG(S) Now?
June 13, 2025 – In the wake of the 2008 global financial crisis, many watched the unfolding European debt crisis with a mix of concern, curiosity, and self-satisfaction. Starting in 2009, Portugal, Ireland, Greece, and Spain (the so-called PIGS), among others, struggled to pay off their sovereign debt and were forced to accept international bailouts. […]
Market Note: Mixed Signals Amid Policy Uncertainty
May 21, 2025 – There are good reasons to be confused about the current state of the U.S. economy. These past weeks have seen a slew of economic data telling very different stories. Simultaneously, the pace of change in the markets has only been surpassed by the speed of developments in government policy, leaving many […]
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Quarterly Letter: Behold, a Nation Dwelling Alone
April 11, 2025 – For much of the past decade, the Fed played a central role in the US economy. From innovative programs such as Quantitative Easing (QE) that emerged in the wake of ’08, through the Covid response, and culminating in the interest rate hikes of 2022, investors saw the Fed as a dominant […]
Market Note: Optimism Meets Reality
March 5, 2025 – The wave of economic optimism that prevailed at the end of 2024 has crashed on the shores of a complicated economic and policy landscape. Here’s what’s happening. First, a bevy of economic indicators suggests that the economy could be slowing faster than previously expected. Consumer spending declined in January for the […]
Market Note: A Continuation of Policy by Other Means
February 7, 2025 – In the complex power dynamics between nation-states, governments employ a spectrum of foreign policy tools to influence the behavior of other nations. These range from soft power instruments like international aid, cultural exchange programs, and economic collaborations, to more muscular measures such as diplomatic treaties and conditional financial assistance. At the […]
Quarterly Letter: A Strong Year Gives Way to an Uncertain Future
By Avi Deutsch January 10, 2025 – Few began 2024 feeling optimistic about the US economy. The year that began shortly after fighting in the Middle East erupted, joining the Ukraine War as a source of geopolitical uncertainty; the year after the Fed rate hit its highest level since 2000; the year that promised a […]