Quarterly Letter: Behold, a Nation Dwelling Alone
April 11, 2025 – For much of the past decade, the Fed played a central role in the US economy. From innovative programs such as Quantitative Easing (QE) that emerged in the wake of ’08, through the Covid response, and culminating in the interest rate hikes of 2022, investors saw the Fed as a dominant […]
Market Note: Optimism Meets Reality
March 5, 2025 – The wave of economic optimism that prevailed at the end of 2024 has crashed on the shores of a complicated economic and policy landscape. Here’s what’s happening. First, a bevy of economic indicators suggests that the economy could be slowing faster than previously expected. Consumer spending declined in January for the […]
Market Note: A Continuation of Policy by Other Means
February 7, 2025 – In the complex power dynamics between nation-states, governments employ a spectrum of foreign policy tools to influence the behavior of other nations. These range from soft power instruments like international aid, cultural exchange programs, and economic collaborations, to more muscular measures such as diplomatic treaties and conditional financial assistance. At the […]
Quarterly Letter: A Strong Year Gives Way to an Uncertain Future
By Avi Deutsch January 10, 2025 – Few began 2024 feeling optimistic about the US economy. The year that began shortly after fighting in the Middle East erupted, joining the Ukraine War as a source of geopolitical uncertainty; the year after the Fed rate hit its highest level since 2000; the year that promised a […]
Market Note: Grateful, But Not Complacent
December 20, 2024 – The term American Exceptionalism should not be used lightly. Like every country, the US is complex, and there are good things and less good things about it. Still, it’s hard to view the US economy in 2024 as anything short of outstanding, especially compared to almost everyone else. Whatever challenges lay ahead, and […]
Market Note: Trump’s Second Term– What It Means for the Economy and Markets
November 15, 2024 – Perhaps the biggest surprise of the 2024 election was that Americans woke up the next day to find the presidential race called. After the prolonged and contentious experience of the 2020 vote count, and with polls showing this election as extremely close, there was widespread relief in a clear outcome. The […]
Quarterly Letter: Navigating Resilience and Uncertainty
October 10, 2024 – The best adjective to describe the US economy in the first three quarters of 2024 is ‘resilient’. Despite high interest rates, extensive layoffs, the threat (and promise) of AI, global geopolitical turmoil, and internal political uncertainty, the US economy continues to grow at a steady clip. Recent estimates suggest that Gross […]
Market Note: A Season of Change
September 12, 2024 – As the first turning leaves herald cooler days, another much-anticipated transition appears imminent—for the first time since March 2020, the Fed is on track to cut interest rates at its September meeting taking place next week. The moment investors and borrowers have long waited for has arrived. But with it comes […]
Market Note: Not Your Average July
July 26, 2024 – Summer is normally a quiet time of year as families head for vacation and headlines and markets take a back seat. But not this year. As we bake under the suddenly ubiquitous heat domes and global temperatures set records only to immediately break them, the news cycle has been moving so […]
Quarterly Letter: The Value Meal Wars
July 10, 2024 – A truism of US economics is that one should never underestimate the US consumer and their ability to propel the economy forward through spending. But what happens when consumers start running out of money? Fast-food chains are finding out. After years of raising prices and increasing profits, consumers appear to have […]
Quarterly Letter: Everyone is Just Waiting
April 10, 2024 – The fall of 1982 was truly a depressing economic period. In November, unemployment hit 10.8%, its highest rate since the great depression. Flint, Michigan, experienced the highest unemployment rate of any metropolitan area, with 23.4% of the labor force out of work.[1] Even President Ronald Reagan, then in the second year […]
Do You Have a Plan?
March 16, 2024 – As we bask in the warmth of these first days of spring and renewal, we are taking a break from our economic and financial analysis to spotlight the importance of wealth planning. At Robertson Stephens, we like to say that managing a portfolio without a wealth plan is like driving without […]