July 10, 2026 – The U.S. consumer is decidedly not happy. In fact, as Chart 1 shows, U.S. consumer sentiment currently sits at its lowest level in 10 years—worse than during the depth of COVID, the 40-year peak of 9% inflation of 2022, or the rate hikes of 2023-2024. There are myriad reasons for this unhappiness, starting, of course, with inflation. After decades of stable inflation, the post-COVID spikes blindsided consumers and materially eroded their spending power. Ten thousand dollars in 2019 dollars is worth only $7,629 today, a 24% drop in purchasing power.[1] The impact of this change is felt by anyone who has not seen a corresponding increase in their income. While real wages have barely moved (+1.0%) since 2019, there have been sharp divergences across

May 15, 2026 – Incoming Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh is inheriting a very different world from the one Jerome Powell took over eight years ago. One sign of that difference is the Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading that was coincidentally released on the day of his confirmation. It came in at 3.8%, the highest level since June 2023. While the immediate cause of the recent increase is energy prices—driven by continued disruption in the Strait of Hormuz—the reading also reflects the inflation environment we’ve been living in for the past four years. In the post‑2022 world, 2% is no longer the ceiling on inflation; it is the floor. Instead of bumping up against it, we are bouncing off it. The causes of this shift are complex, but

April 14, 2026 – The term “revisionist power” describes states dissatisfied with the existing world order and seeking to reshape the norms and institutions that govern it. These powers stand in contrast to the “status quo” powers — those seeking to maintain the existing world order. Since the end of the Cold War, the lines have been fairly clear: the U.S.-led liberal order, with institutions including NATO and the U.N., represented the status quo. Countries like China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea sought to challenge it. The Iran War, which, as of this writing, has entered a fragile ceasefire, shows just how tenuous this framework has become in recent years. This change comes less from the Iranian state, which continued to assert its role as a major regional