Crisis Du Jour
March 15, 2023 Good morning, Following yesterday’s market recovery from the near financial crisis in U.S. regional banks, we awake this morning to a new financial crisis unfolding in the European banking system. The culprit du jour: Credit Suisse (CS). The company’s shares dropped 25% upon disclosing that its top shareholder ruled out providing more […]
In Crisis Now
March 13, 2023 Good morning, The U.S. is in a liquidity crisis. So much has happened since the closing bell rang on Friday and the failure of Silicon Valley Bank (SVP). The most obvious thing to note is the quick policy response of U.S. authorities over the weekend, which protects even uninsured depositors and offers […]
The Unexpected Wrinkle
March 10, 2023 Good morning, The much-anticipated monthly employment numbers came out this morning. While headline job growth was an upside surprise at +311k vs +225k expected (too hot), the unemployment number rose more than expected to 3.6%, up +0.2%. That unemployment number and lower than expected wage growth trumped jobs growth, and the overall […]
Uptrend Influence Still Lingers
March 8, 2023 Good morning, All eyes were on Fed Chair Jerome Powell yesterday morning as he began giving his prepared speech to the Senate Finance Committee. Markets expected a reiteration of last Fed meeting’s higher-for-longer Fed narrative, steady 25 basis point (bps) hikes at the next few Fed meetings in March, April and maybe […]
Big Week
March 6, 2023 Good morning, The S&P 500 Index (SPX) ended up +1.90% last week, its first up week in the last four. I think that puts February’s correction in the rearview mirror. Asset markets (stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies) remain in a kind of myopic phase, where the only driver of return expectations seems to […]
The Big Question
March 3, 2023 Good morning, The market’s pause continues. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) closed yesterday +.28% above last Friday’s close. Unfortunately, that is not enough of a buffer to assume we’ll get an up week on the SPX this week. This week does follow three down weeks in a row, so the bulls could […]
Short One
March 1, 2023 Good morning, Not much to say this morning, markets seem to be on pause. The S&P 500 Index closed last night precisely where it ended last week. The same goes for bond yields. Futures are up a whopping .25% pre-market this morning and most of that can be attributed to surprisingly good […]
Leaning Slightly Bullish and In Line with Cycles Chart
February 27, 2023 Good morning, The shortest month of the year is coming to an end and none too soon. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) had its worst week since December and was down -2.67% last week. February has taken back about half of January’s gains. A -4.5% correction on the SPX is not a […]
Time For A Pause?
February 23, 2023 Good morning, For all the anticipation of the Fed minutes yesterday, they didn’t really move the needle much at all. In any event, overnight price moves have generally reversed yesterday’s modest moves. Thus far, February has been a month of correction with markets reversing January’s surprisingly strong price gains. The correction in bonds has […]
Chart Day – Updated
February 21, 2023 Good morning, At the end of last year, what I thought was the most salient equity market forecast for the first half of 2023, that stocks would likely trade within the same range in the coming 6-months as they had in the last 6-months, was accompanied by a chart of the S&P […]
Par For Up-Trending Equities
February 15, 2023 Good morning, The all-important CPI number came in yesterday exactly as expected and it was expected to be a little strong. The interpretation by markets was “higher-for-longer” for the Fed’s tightening cycle. Two weeks ago, bond markets were betting a low probability of a May rate hike and an end to the […]
CPI Week
February 13, 2023 Good morning, Markets were quiet overnight, reluctantly inching higher into early morning trading (+0.25% on Futures, 90min before the open) as this month’s most important reading on inflation approaches the 24 hr. mark. January’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) prints tomorrow at 8:30am ET and is the event of the week. Last week, […]