March 2025 Recap
Economy Yesterday, Trump’s “Liberation Day” Press conference confirmed investors’ worst fears of an impending global trade war. Goldman Sachs estimates that the ‘reciprocal’ tariffs announced by the White House, coupled with other tariffs already announced year-to-date, would raise the US effective tariff rate by 18.8%. While it’s possible that the negotiations with trading partners will lead […]
Investment Office Quick Thoughts: April 3, 2025
We finally received the details on the scope of the Trump Administration Tariffs, and it’s beyond market consensus. Risk markets currently do not like the announcement, with stock futures currently down and the NASDAQ leading markets lower. Copper and oil are also falling in post-market trading, suggesting concerns about dimmer growth prospects. The Asia open seems more muted than the headlines would potentially justify.
Economic Commentary – March 31, 2025
This wake-up is a bit more than usual, an old-fashioned jangly alarm clock disrupting a fitful sleep. Significant tariffs will be imposed by the US this week on a wide variety of products and trading partners. At the same time, previously imposed trade actions (especially steel and aluminum tariffs), federal employment reductions, and federal health […]
Investment Commentary – March 31, 2025
Executive Summary Last week, stocks declined, and bonds rallied as fresh signs of economic weakness and renewed inflation fears disturbed markets. The S&P 500’s closed down 4.4% over the quarter. In particular, Tech Mega-Caps were hit hard. Meanwhile, the yield on 10-year Treasuries fell approximately 10 basis points to ~4.25% as investors sought safety. A […]
Wealth Planning Commentary – March 31, 2025
Rising Costs, Roth IRAs, and Social Security Expectations With inflationary pressures and economic uncertainty this year, building a buffer for rising costs may be wise. To prepare for a potential price surge, we recommend increasing projected living expenses this year and next. For those feeling the strain of higher costs, now is a good time […]
Q1 2025 Economic Recap
Chief Economist Jeanette Garretty provides a recap for Q1 2025. She discusses consumer confidence, personal income, Federal government employment, job creation, and tariffs.
Team Vail Portfolio Update
March 13, 2025 – We wanted to give you an update on your portfolio. Please click on the video link below to listen to the upcoming portfolio changes. In addition to the above, we have attached a few charts that help provide context to our commentary. Chart 1: Magnificent Seven stock sink, while defensive race […]
Tamer Feb US CPI may not budge Fed, given tariff picture
Chief Economist Jeanette Garretty was quoted in Reuters discussing stagflation concerns and the Fed’s next moves. “This should end for a while anyway, stagflation concerns. The dominant concern in the market that started last week was economic growth and then you got stagflation concerns,” said Garretty. Read more here: https://bit.ly/3FnTMYd Disclosures Investment advisory services offered through Robertson Stephens […]
Understanding the Current Market Selloff – March 11, 2025
Stocks started 2025 trading higher but have since pulled back. The S&P 500 has declined more than -8% from its all-time high on February 19th, lowering its year-to-date return to -5% (Figure 1). The Nasdaq 100, an index of technology and growth stocks, is down -7% year-to-date, while the small-cap-focused Russell 2000 has fallen -9%. The Magnificent 7, a group that includes Microsoft, Apple, Meta, Alphabet, Amazon, Nvidia, and Tesla, has declined nearly -15%. Given the recent volatility, our team wanted to discuss the current environment and provide a market update.
February Recap: The Market Navigates Economic and Policy Uncertainty in February
Monthly Market Summary Stocks and Bonds Move in Opposite Directions Amid Market Rotation Stocks traded lower in a late-month sell-off as sentiment weakened. The S&P 500’s decline erased most of its post-election gains, which had been driven by expectations for stronger growth and deregulation under the new administration. Smaller companies underperformed, with the Russell 2000 […]
March Madness – Short-Term Pain for Long-Term Gain?
By Stuart Katz, Chief Investment Officer March 5, 2025 -March Madness and market uncertainty share striking parallels in their unpredictability and high stakes. The NCAA basketball tournament, known for its “Cinderella stories” and upsets, is a single-elimination event where even top-seeded teams can fall unexpectedly. Similarly, financial markets operate under constant uncertainty, with prices influenced […]
Market Note: Optimism Meets Reality
March 5, 2025 – The wave of economic optimism that prevailed at the end of 2024 has crashed on the shores of a complicated economic and policy landscape. Here’s what’s happening. First, a bevy of economic indicators suggests that the economy could be slowing faster than previously expected. Consumer spending declined in January for the […]