September is a bad month for stocks. In fact, it’s the worst month, on average, for every U.S. stock index. Going back to 1928, the S&P has lost an average of 1.1% in September, and it ended the month in negative territory more than half the time.[1] This is not to suggest any market timing schemes, but rather serves as a reminder of the extent to which the stock market reflects shifting attitudes and moods that are highly subjective. A seasonal zeitgeist, if you will. Gone is the summer high. In is the fall hustle, and if you’re looking, there’s plenty to worry about. For those looking at the economy and the markets, the unfolding interest rate drama is high on the worry list. The 10-year Treasury rose

July 10, 2026 – The U.S. consumer is decidedly not happy. In fact, as Chart 1 shows, U.S. consumer sentiment currently sits at its lowest level in 10 years—worse than during the depth of COVID, the 40-year peak of 9% inflation of 2022, or the rate hikes of 2023-2024. There are myriad reasons for this unhappiness, starting, of course, with inflation. After decades of stable inflation, the post-COVID spikes blindsided consumers and materially eroded their spending power. Ten thousand dollars in 2019 dollars is worth only $7,629 today, a 24% drop in purchasing power.[1] The impact of this change is felt by anyone who has not seen a corresponding increase in their income. While real wages have barely moved (+1.0%) since 2019, there have been sharp divergences across

May 15, 2026 – Incoming Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh is inheriting a very different world from the one Jerome Powell took over eight years ago. One sign of that difference is the Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading that was coincidentally released on the day of his confirmation. It came in at 3.8%, the highest level since June 2023. While the immediate cause of the recent increase is energy prices—driven by continued disruption in the Strait of Hormuz—the reading also reflects the inflation environment we’ve been living in for the past four years. In the post‑2022 world, 2% is no longer the ceiling on inflation; it is the floor. Instead of bumping up against it, we are bouncing off it. The causes of this shift are complex, but