Market Note: Hello Chairman Warsh, Welcome to Post 2% Inflation
May 15, 2026 – Incoming Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh is inheriting a very different world from the one Jerome Powell took over eight years ago. One sign of that difference is the Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading that was coincidentally released on the day of his confirmation. It came in at 3.8%, the highest […]
Five Charts for the Week That Was: May 8, 2026
Chief Economist Jeanette Garretty provides 5 economic charts covering topics including US GDP, Federal Debt, US Consumer Credit Change, American net wealth, and labor force participation.
April 2026 Recap
Strategic Outlook: Resilience Amidst Geopolitical Volatility The current investment landscape is defined by a paradox: heightened friction in the Middle East contrasted with remarkable domestic economic strength. The primary takeaway from recent market activity is the overall stability of the United States. The Real Economy: A Structural Shift in Energy Dynamics The global narrative remains […]
FOMC Commentary – April 29, 2026
If a Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) interest rate statement can be judged to be terse, it would be the one issued today (April 29) at the conclusion of meetings that were expected to be both highly interesting and boringly uneventful.
Five Charts for the Week That Was: April 24, 2026
Chief Economist Jeanette Garretty provides 5 economic charts covering topics including consumer sentiment, gas prices, retail sales, and real wage growth.
Market Volatility: The Best Days and Worst Days Travel Together
The stock market’s best and worst days tend to arrive together, and the early months of 2026 offered a timely reminder. The S&P 500 fell nearly -10% from its late-January high through the end of March as the U.S.-Iran conflict sent oil prices surging more than +60%. Headlines about the Strait of Hormuz closure, rising […]
2026 Q1 Market Letter: To Live in a Revisionist World
April 14, 2026 – The term “revisionist power” describes states dissatisfied with the existing world order and seeking to reshape the norms and institutions that govern it. These powers stand in contrast to the “status quo” powers — those seeking to maintain the existing world order. Since the end of the Cold War, the lines […]
Why Staying Invested Is the Hardest, Smartest Choice Right Now
As published in Kiplinger April 13, 2026 – Geopolitical headlines in the past few weeks have been jarring. As joint U.S. and Israeli air strikes on Iran dominate the global news cycle, it’s natural for a sense of anxiety to surface. There is a direct impact on energy markets, with oil prices surging and the […]
How Portfolio Architecture Becomes a Competitive Advantage
There is something unusual about the uncertainty investors face today. It is not the acute, sharp shock of a financial crisis that resolves through a quick “V-shaped” recovery. Instead, we are witnessing a structural reconfiguration – a fundamental shifting of the assumptions that have underpinned global commerce, capital flows, and monetary policy for forty years. […]
Five Charts for the Week That Was: April 6, 2026
Chief Economist Jeanette Garretty provides 5 economic charts covering topics including payroll numbers, healthcare jobs, unemployment rates, mortgage rates, and credit card delinquency rates.
Market Update: Iran vs The World, Round 2
March 22, 2026 – How we got into this war is unclear to me, but some facts are known. Iran’s ballistic missile program was back into full swing and would soon have more long-range missiles than both the U.S. and Israel could ever protect against. While the rhetoric and kinetic action in June 2025 (The […]
Beyond the Noise Podcast – Episode 1
Listen to Chief Economist Jeanette Garretty and Chief Investment Officer Stuart Katz as they analyze the economy and markets amidst current geopolitical tensions.