Quarterly Letter: Navigating Resilience and Uncertainty
October 10, 2024 – The best adjective to describe the US economy in the first three quarters of 2024 is ‘resilient’. Despite high interest rates, extensive layoffs, the threat (and promise) of AI, global geopolitical turmoil, and internal political uncertainty, the US economy continues to grow at a steady clip. Recent estimates suggest that Gross […]
Market Note: A Season of Change
September 12, 2024 – As the first turning leaves herald cooler days, another much-anticipated transition appears imminent—for the first time since March 2020, the Fed is on track to cut interest rates at its September meeting taking place next week. The moment investors and borrowers have long waited for has arrived. But with it comes […]
Market Note: Not Your Average July
July 26, 2024 – Summer is normally a quiet time of year as families head for vacation and headlines and markets take a back seat. But not this year. As we bake under the suddenly ubiquitous heat domes and global temperatures set records only to immediately break them, the news cycle has been moving so […]
Quarterly Letter: The Value Meal Wars
July 10, 2024 – A truism of US economics is that one should never underestimate the US consumer and their ability to propel the economy forward through spending. But what happens when consumers start running out of money? Fast-food chains are finding out. After years of raising prices and increasing profits, consumers appear to have […]
Quarterly Letter: Everyone is Just Waiting
April 10, 2024 – The fall of 1982 was truly a depressing economic period. In November, unemployment hit 10.8%, its highest rate since the great depression. Flint, Michigan, experienced the highest unemployment rate of any metropolitan area, with 23.4% of the labor force out of work.[1] Even President Ronald Reagan, then in the second year […]
Do You Have a Plan?
March 16, 2024 – As we bask in the warmth of these first days of spring and renewal, we are taking a break from our economic and financial analysis to spotlight the importance of wealth planning. At Robertson Stephens, we like to say that managing a portfolio without a wealth plan is like driving without […]
Market Note: Wait, Is Inflation Back?
February 16, 2024 – Data released on Tuesday showed that consumer prices increased by 3.1% in January from a year earlier.[1] Though a decrease from December’s 3.4% number, January’s reading was above the economists’ consensus projection of 2.9%.[2] Investors reacted strongly, sending stocks lower and bond yields higher, though by Wednesday, both markets saw a modest […]
Quarterly Update: A Soft Landing into a Hard World
January 12, 2024 – I suspect few will mourn the end of 2023. The year that started with deep concerns over the economy and ended with geopolitical turmoil saw few happy headlines. Despite the turmoil, the US economy had a surprisingly strong year, even as Europe and China struggled to regain their footing. This, in […]
New Cycles
By Avi Deutsch December 7, 2023 – Occasionally, economic periods coincide with the annual rhythm of life, and this December appears to mark one of those instances. A feeling of transition is in the air, marked by cooling inflation, a loosening labor market, and the expectation that the Fed is done raising interest rates. While […]
Market Note: What is a Natural Interest Rate Anyway?
By Avi Deutsch September 14, 2023 Summary of Key Points: _________________________________________ Over 18 months into this tightening cycle, and with headline inflation down to 3.2% as of July, many are wondering when the Fed funds rate will reach its terminal rate, the peak rate of this tightening cycle. But as investors look further out, the […]
Quarterly Update: Jerome Powell’s Soft Landing
By Avi Deutsch July 14, 2023 – Jerome Powell’s (“JP”) biography should make for a fascinating read. The Fed chairman, who was nominated by Donald Trump and is the first non-economist to serve since 1981 has become one of the most powerful figures in today’s economy. Though far from perfect, JP has shown himself to […]
Chicken
By Avi Deutsch May 11, 2023 – Two games of chicken are unfolding in the U.S. economy, the one between investors and the Federal Reserve, and the other between Democrats and Republicans in Washington D.C. Despite the Fed’s recent interest rate hike last week, bond investors continue to expect that the Fed will cut rates […]