Quarterly Update: A Wobbly Tight Rope
April 14, 2023 – The Fed’s mandate to guide the US economy through monetary policy is often likened to steering a cargo freighter, though a Rube Goldberg machine may be a more apt analogy. Between the Fed and the US economy stand a dizzying array of national and regional banks, as well as non-bank lenders. […]
Unforced Errors
By Avi Deutsch March 17, 2023 – The financial infrastructure that enables the modern economy is a work of wonder. A global machinery of banks, brokerage firms, investment banks, stock exchanges, fund managers, and insurance companies hums in the background of our lives. This machinery is governed by a bewildering array of domestic governments and […]
Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) Failure
March 10, 2023 – Today’s news about Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) took everyone by surprise. In the span of just a few hours, the country’s 16th-largest bank went into FDIC receivership. Most of you will not have heard of SVB prior to today — they mostly serve as a corporate banker, predominantly in the venture […]
Mixed Messages
February 9, 2023 – The first two weeks of February provided investors with a series of contradicting signals about the state of the economy. It began with the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on February 1st, where the Fed, as expected, raised interest rates by 25bps to a range of 4.5-4.75%. While the decision itself […]
Tech Employees’ Stockholdings Have Taken a Hit. Financial Pros Offer Advice
January 4, 2023 – Managing Director, Avi Deutsch was featured in Barron’s discussing ‘Tech Employees’ Stockholdings Have Taken a Hit. Financial Pros Offer Advice.’ “Clients who are young can afford to have a lot of exposure to an individual company,” says Deutsch. “They also have some opportunities around lower stock prices in terms of how they negotiate their compensation: […]
Five Things Investors Will Remember About 2022
By Avi Deutsch December 28, 2022 – All years are different, but some years are more different than others. For investors, 2022 falls squarely into the latter category, as many of the events that transpired represent a paradigm shift from the principles that dominated our financial markets since the global financial crisis of 2008. Whether […]
Inflation Blues
By Avi Deustch September 22, 2022 – The release of the August inflation data this week marks a new and painful phase in the War on Inflation. It’s now obvious that the Fed was not only too late to raise interest rates, but that inflation has spread from supplies and commodities into labor costs. Without […]
Are We There Yet?
By Avi Deutsch July 29, 2022 – It was only the summer of 2020, two years ago, that going to the supermarket felt like a risky undertaking and flying was reserved for emergencies. The economy shrank by 5% in Q1, and then by 31% in Q2, before bouncing back with 34% growth in Q3. But […]
Market Note: Bear
By Avi Deustch May 20, 2022 – If you’re having a hard time following what’s going on in the stock market, you’re not alone. This week it was poor financial results reported by Walmart, Target, and other retailers, that sent the stock market into 4-5% daily gyrations, leaving investors nauseated and on-edge and just barely […]
Market Note: Missles, Dollars and Oil
By Avi Deustch March 19, 2022 – The events of this past month mark a unique confluence of geo-political and macro-economic events that seemed all but impossible just months ago. To summarize a few: While the long-term effects of these events will take years to digest, its apparent that we are living in a fast-changing […]
The Return of Eastern Superpower(s)
By Avi Deutsch February 25, 2022 – The events of the past few days mark the culmination of years of more subtle challenges to a strained world order. Thirty-two years after the end of the cold war Russia has invaded Ukraine. This was done in blatant defiance of the Western powers and in a clear […]
Everything You Need to Know about the Yield Curve
By Avi Deutsch December 23, 2018 – The yield curve made headlines last week with the inversion of the 2-year and 5-year government bonds followed by murmurs of a coming recession. With U.S. markets flashing red and the major indexes entering bear market prices, here is everything you need to know about the yield curve […]