The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released considerable, albeit preliminary, data on the US economy in the second quarter and much of the story got lost in the glare of Kevin Warsh’s problematic second press conference as Chairman of the Federal Reserve. The first estimate of US Q2 GDP growth was 1.5%, somewhat below expectations which were averaging around 2%. However, what economists delight in calling “real sales to private domestic purchasers” — aka consumer spending and fixed investment — rose a very strong 3.9%, mitigating the significant drag from imports that exceeded exports. Government spending decreased slightly and continues to be a largely neutral force in providing economic stimulus. At the same time, the price index for domestic purchases rose an eye-popping 5.7% during the quarter, compared to 3.6% in the first quarter. Much of this price increase was driven by energy prices, and looking at the core PCE for the quarter told a different tale, rising 3.4% compared to 4.4% in the first quarter. Nevertheless, in these numbers one can better understand the three dissenting votes at the interest rate meeting of the FOMC (Federal Reserve); very strong domestic demand and very strong domestic price increases, carrying a “5” handle, no less. And it all comes into this week with the employment numbers for July, since continued employment growth is likely to provide a continuing reason for consumers to look past the price increases as much as possible and spend money as they have been, relying on savings and credit cards and wealth increases equity markets. It is not rocket science to say that the foundation of third and fourth quarter US economic growth will be what happens with consumers and business investment in coming months.
Data to Watch
- US JOLTS Job Openings for June, released Tuesday, August 4
- US Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Services Sector Purchasing Managers Index for July, released Wednesday, August 5
- US NonFarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate for July, released Friday, August 7














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