The return of war, or almost-war, somewhat unexpectedly dominates the economic debate. As oil prices return to the $90/bbl levels last seen in early June—and $100 Brent crude is a distinct near-term possibility—the question of what comes next and how countries and their economies will respond looms large. Should the MOU (Cease Fire Memorandum of Understanding) interlude of quasi-peace be taken to reveal the “normal” state of economic conditions, with less upward pressure on prices and support for economic growth, or was the MOU an aberration in a much longer-term conflict placing ongoing strain on global economic activity? One of the problems for investors is that, by and large, investment decisions are determined by a rational evaluation of opportunities and risks, predisposing investment markets to think of most relevant players as acting rationally. It seems to have been presumed by many that rational interests would preclude a return to war, given the economic pain experienced by Iran and the mid-term elections threatening in the US. The decisions probably are still rational, but other factors are in play…
Data to Watch
- Conference Board Leading Index Survey for June, released Monday, July 20
- US Mortgage Bankers Association 30 Yr Mortgage Rate for week of July 20, released Wednesday, July 22
- S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index for July (Preliminary), released Friday, July 24















